How to use it: Pick your three deals most likely to close this quarter. Run each one down the deal-level test below. Be honest — the pipeline doesn't lie; the forecast does.
Part 1 · Per Deal
The deal-level test — tick only what is true.
Do this for each of your top three deals. Any "no" means the deal is not forecastable yet.
There is a confirmed next meeting — a date and a time.
In both diaries. Not a follow-up email. Not "circling back." A booked calendar slot. No confirmed next step = Falldown.
The rep has actually spoken with the prospect in the last 14 days.
A real conversation — not an email opened, not a LinkedIn view.
The close date has not moved more than once.
A date that keeps sliding is a wish, not a forecast.
Someone on your side has met the person who actually signs.
Not the champion's boss "in theory" — the economic buyer, in a room or on a call.
The buyer can state, in their own words, what happens next.
If only the rep knows the next step, the buyer isn't really in the deal.
There is a real reason to buy by the close date.
A compelling event — a deadline, a cost, a risk. "Q3 budget" is not an event.
Count the boxes you couldn't tick.
That's your fiction — deal by deal. Now scale it across every rep and every "commit," and you have a rough read on your Sales Fiction Index™.
0 gaps · real, forecastable
1–2 gaps · at risk — coach it this week
3+ gaps · fiction — remove it from the number
Part 2 · The Manager Layer
Is your system manufacturing fiction?
The rep is rarely the problem. The manager sets the standard for what counts as real. Tick what's true today.
Pipeline reviews interrogate the opportunity — not the CRM entry.
"What did the buyer commit to?" beats "update the stage field."
"Confirmed next meeting" is a non-negotiable standard, every deal, every week.
The same question, asked the same way, in every territory.
Managers are equipped to hold the standard on Monday — not just trained once.
If the training is gone by Monday morning, the manager never really had it.
Your CRM reflects how deals actually move — not how reps wish they did.
Stages, close-date logic and forecast categories built for reality.
Part 3 · The Usual Suspects
Which behaviours are inflating the number?
After 25 years, the same nine rep archetypes show up in every team. Eight inflate the number. One is the benchmark. Flag the ones you recognise.
All-Star Alice · the benchmark. A confirmed next step on every deal.
Rollercoaster Rachel · feast or famine. Stops prospecting the moment she starts closing.
Big Deal Bob · all eggs, one basket. One deal is 60% of his forecast.
Falldown Fred · strong start, no finish. Deals drift with no booked next meeting.
Success Vacation Marty · done for the quarter. Hits his number, then builds nothing.
Comfortable Carl · never bad enough. 70 to 80% of quota, year after year.
Shotgun Shane · fires everywhere, hits nothing. A quote for every conversation.
Discount Joe · closes deals, kills margin. Discounts first, not last.
Sandbagging Sam · the under-committer. Lowballs every forecast to look like a hero.
Want the real number — not a guess?
The Sales Fiction Index™ measures exactly what percentage of your pipeline is real, deal by deal, in one week — with a prioritised action plan before your next forecast call. Investment: $3,500 CDN, credited in full toward any programme.